Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in Brazil: Implications for Health Policy and Resource Allocation

Authors

Mariana Oliveira Santos, Department of Pulmonology, Instituto Nacional de Câncer (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, BrazilFollow
Rafael Almeida Costa, Department of Epidemiology, Faculdade de Saúde Pública, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, BrazilFollow
Camila Ferreira Barbosa, Division of Thoracic Oncology, Hospital de Câncer de Barretos, Barretos, BrazilFollow

Article Type

Article

Abstract

Background: Lung cancer remains a leading cause of cancer mortality in Brazil, with patterns shaped by historical tobacco use, environmental exposures, and disparities in healthcare access. While overall smoking prevalence has declined markedly, the impact on mortality rates varies by sex and region.

Objective: To analyze national trends in lung cancer mortality in Brazil from 1996 to 2023, assess sex- and region-specific patterns, and discuss implications for public health policy and resource allocation.

Methods: This ecological time-trend study used age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for lung cancer (ICD-10 codes C33–C34) obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM/DATASUS) and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Rates were calculated using the direct method standardized to the WHO world population. Trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses were stratified by sex and by Brazil’s five macro-regions.

Results: Between 1996 and 2023, male lung cancer mortality declined by approximately 33% (from ∼45 to ∼30 per 100,000), while female mortality increased by about 47% (from ∼15 to ∼22 per 100,000). Regional disparities were marked: the South and Southeast consistently recorded the highest rates, whereas the North and Northeast had lower absolute rates but slower declines. In both sexes, over 70% of cases were diagnosed at advanced stages, reflecting limited early detection capacity.

Conclusion: Lung cancer mortality in Brazil is undergoing a gendered epidemiological shift, with declines in men but significant increases in women, alongside persistent regional inequities. These trends underscore the need for gender-sensitive tobacco cessation initiatives, targeted screening programs, expansion of diagnostic and oncology infrastructure in underserved regions, and integration of molecular testing into public healthcare. Strategic resource allocation based on these patterns could significantly improve outcomes and reduce disparities.

Keywords

Lung cancer, mortality trends, Brazil, tobacco control, health policy, regional disparities

Recommended Citation

Santos, Mariana Oliveira; Costa, Rafael Almeida; and Barbosa, Camila Ferreira (2025) "Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in Brazil: Implications for Health Policy and Resource Allocation," Muthanna Medical Journal: Vol. 12: Iss. 2, Article 4.
Available at: https://muthmj.mu.edu.iq/journal/vol12/iss2/4

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.